Sure-fire ways for Hayley to succeed in the USA

[stevemacdonald]

I believe that finding the appropriate material to sing is the only real hurdle for Hayley if she's to connect with American audiences. With the right combination of radio-friendly songs and key appearances on the three star-making shows (Leno, Letterman and Oprah) Hayley could be an "overnight" success in the States on the strength of her voice alone. Her shy, demure, unassuming manner will be keenly appreciated by Americans once they've experienced the magical talent she possesses in abundance.

I don't think it's wise for her to concentrate on maintaining her UK success when there's a whole world to conquer now that she's fully independent. Indeed, her age may have in the past been a barrier to being taken seriously stateside. In 2004 she was quite giggly in interviews and was hard for some of us to understand when, in her strong Kiwi accent, she blithely talked about "busking" -- an obscure term stateside that some mistook for "basking." She's older and wiser now so that won't get in the way again.

Trust me, Hayley will be a smash in America someday. Somebody, maybe Josh Groban's producer David Foster who knows how to put a crossover act up on the world stage like no one else, will get the music right for Hayley and off she'll go.

[toronado]

Yeah, I had to look up busking and netball the first few times I saw her interviewed.

[Dave]

stevemacdonald said:

I believe that finding the appropriate material to sing is the only real hurdle for Hayley if she's to connect with American audiences. With the right combination of radio-friendly songs and key appearances on the three star-making shows (Leno, Letterman and Oprah) Hayley could be an "overnight" success in the States on the strength of her voice alone. Her shy, demure, unassuming manner will be keenly appreciated by Americans once they've experienced the magical talent she possesses in abundance.

I don't think it's wise for her to concentrate on maintaining her UK success when there's a whole world to conquer now that she's fully independent. Indeed, her age may have in the past been a barrier to being taken seriously stateside. In 2004 she was quite giggly in interviews and was hard for some of us to understand when, in her strong Kiwi accent, she blithely talked about "busking" -- an obscure term stateside that some mistook for "basking." She's older and wiser now so that won't get in the way again.

Trust me, Hayley will be a smash in America someday. Somebody, maybe Josh Groban's producer David Foster who knows how to put a crossover act up on the world stage like no one else, will get the music right for Hayley and off she'll go.

Steve, are you suggesting that Hayley should be prepared to completely change her musical style and repertoire and if necessary compromise her principles all in the name of the money men? Since when has she been willing to do that? She didn't and wouldn't have done it to get into the UK market and I suspect that her attitudes now are much the same.

And once the musical makeover men get involved, it won't stop at changing the music, will it? Not all singers are prepared to do "anything" in the name of breaking into the US (or any other) market and I certainly hope that Hayley stands by her musical and other principles.

I'd hate to see Hayley get into the kind of mess that another 19 year old who did seem to make the compromises did, Joss Stone. That would be very sad and - back in the UK anyway - it has backfired. Yes Joss will get her success in next week's Billboard charts and will make a lot of money out of it but in the UK, she entered the charts last week lower than Hayley did and she had - seriously - ten times the publicity!.

It's all gone a bit wrong for 19 years old Joss, I hope that Hayley's advisors have taken note. If she can't "make it big" in the US (but i hope she can) there is still that other 60% of the World CD market to aim for... together with her continuing - albeit moderate - presence in the US because Hayley being Hayley, I don't think she will ever give up on it.

Dave

[Richard]

Hello Dave, Steve and everybody!

I honestly can't see Hayley changing her image for the sake of greater success in the USA or anywhere else. However, she may well try some different musical styles, as long as they suit her voice. Considering the obvious popularity of 'Summer Fly' on 'Celtic Treasure', she could record some more songs with a country feel in the future, and this wouldn't change her as a person in any way, or upset her existing fans. Personally I'd love to hear Hayley's voice accompanied by a pedal steel guitar!

Best Wishes,

Richard

[roger]

Hi Steve,

Following on from what Dave and Richard have said, I believe Hayley will continue to push the musical barriers a little bit (along the lines of 'Summer Fly' for example) but I can't see her making any serious change to her material. Were she to do so, she would not be the Hayley that we all know and love. Her success stateside would still not be guaranteed but she would risk losing a significant proportion of her existing fans elsewhere. She knows better than to take such a risk.

Roger

[Martin]

Quite simply I would have thought that for Hayley to get the exposure she would need in the US to succeed then she has to get widespread TV coverage. This could take various forms, none of which would be easy to set up but how about a "Live in Nashville" (or "Live in Madison Square Gardens") concert similar to the New Zealand concert (and dvd) made a couple of years ago?

Martin

[roger]

Hi Martin,

Yes, this is the sort of thing that *should* increase Hayley's profile quite significantly in the US. But the NZ concert to which you refer, was broadcast throughout most of America on PBS, several times in each region, I believe. Still, Hayley made relatively little impact on the American public.

So this question is put, largely, to our American friends. Would that PBS special have had more impact if the concert had been recorded in America along the lines of Martin's suggestion?

Roger

[toronado]

Frankly, not if it was on PBS. PBS just doesn't have the audience to break Hayley into the US market. In fact, I think it could handicap her somewhat, as many people here (especially youths) view PBS as being stodgy and esoteric. Her best bet would be guest roles on mainstream television I think. That's how I discovered Josh Groban (on Ally McBeal) back in 2001, and later at the Olympics in 2002. If Hayley were to sing at more American sporting events I think it would go a long way as well. Many people here were introduced to Ronan Tynan singing at New York Yankee games.

[roger]

toronado said:

Frankly, not if it was on PBS. PBS just doesn't have the audience to break Hayley into the US market.

Does it not? Thank you toronado, I didn't realise that. From all the discussion on this forum at the time, I assumed that PBS was more highly regarded than that. In that case, my own question has probably been answered.

Roger

[toronado]

PBS probably does get a lot of viewership from people on this forum. For people that enjoy this kind of music, it's really the only place on TV to get it. That having been said, it's not really mainstream enough to bring Hayley all that many new fans from outside her typical demographic, in my opinion.

[milewalker]

Roger and Dave -

If you actually liked Summer Fly I dont think you have much to worry about......I think that Steve is right, but only to an extent. There has to be some appeal other than just her music - but I dont know that is has to be that overt.

My impression has been that PBS actually does help some people. About 4 million people do watch it. Being on PBS was enourmously useful for Charlotte Church, Celtic Woman, Micheal Buble, and especially Andrea Bocelli. In general PBS will help you if you have already done something "cultural" but also exciting enough to stir up the media in a big city. Celtic Woman for example was apparantly very impressive at Radio City Music Hall in New York. The pump was then primed for the PBS concert to get a lot of exposure.

Hayley actually did generate a little stir in New York, Had the special come on the heals of the New York Times write up on her things might have been different. But a whole year passed between them. Hayley's PBS special was therefore what salesman in America call a "cold call" - I am not sure if the term is used elsewhere or not, but it implies that you are contacting a potential customer for the first time (he hasnt been warmed up). Toronado is correct, I think for artists like Hayley. At that point at least she wasnt exciting enough to attract the big city attention you need to have first. Ironically, middle America might like Hayley the way she is, but PBS alone is not the vehicle to get her there.

The hosts on the special when it ran in St Louis were bored duing the show. The one song which roused them was Wuthering Heights (well also May It Be to a lesser extent) The same host conducted Celtic Woman last year (who did excite them) - and when they announced Hayley was going to join he didnt even remember her.

The truth of the matter is that the change in music required might actually be very small - and Hayley might actually be growing into it to an extent already. Celtic Treasure produced two songs which might have been big hits under different circumstances. Previously Wuthering Heights might have hit. She is not positioned well enough in the market to exploit them unfortunately - but she might be on to something there.

I will speculate that Hayley does have the potential to achieve what Dave calls a solid base of 500,000 to 1,000,000. I think she can do this and keep most of her current fans. At her present rate, though it could easily take her 10 years to get there. Enya did it, and believe it or not a lot of people who follwed Clannad 25 years ago are still among her fans. The question is whether or not her current level (actually figure about 75 percent of her current level 5 years from now) is enough to keep her going in the meantime. The way they are handling her now leads me to believe that for whatever reason, the budget is pretty tight.

Jon

[scoobedoo]

Hi Jon,yes you are probably right in what you say,but I for one wouldn't like to see Hayley change her style just to satisfy Americans.As Dave pointed out there is 60% of the rest of the world that enjoys Hayley's style,so why change it?

I agree with you Richard,it would be nice to hear Hayley backed by a country/folk music band I reckon she would really push the music boundaries,with some interesting results too,

cheers all,

Rodders CH CH NZ

[Dave]

Thanks for your interesting analysis Jon, most of which i agree with.

Rodders, yes i agree with you too except for one point, I don't think it's Americans that is the 'problem' I think it's the American media. Hayley simply cannot, try as she and her promoters may, get any significant coverage or exposure (airplay) on radio or on TV. Her appearances this year have been diluted by being a member of Celtic Woman - who as a group/show are getting very nice CD sales and are still around no. 20 in the Billboard 200. If only Hayley could get there!

Despite their huge success as CW, none of the individual members has had as much individual chart success as Hayley, I think Lisa has come closest. So Hayley should not expect a huge sales increase because of it but a modest (yet worthwhile) one.

I suspect that the US media (not people), about which I've read some interesting articles in the last year or two, may be shooting the entire music industry in their collective foot. US CD sales are 18% down this year on last year (Billboard) and I have just calculated some rather shocking figures about the ratio of US versus UK CD sales recently. I need to make a table that will make sense but as a taster, the ratio of US:UK CD sales was, in the last two weeks, overall 3.6 and 2.9 respectively - but when adjusted for the dollar/pound exchange rate and based on the (Celtic) Treasure selling price at Amazon, the ratio of monetary value fell to 2.7 and 2.1. The latter figure will be too low as it was Mothers Day week in the UK but the 2.7 is realistic.

For albums in the top 20, the ratios of monetary value (crude as it's based only on Celtic/Treasure) were 1.8 and below 1.3 respectively after allowing for price and exchange rate. 1.8 is the more realistic - but the ratio of US to UK population is 5.0!!!

Part of the 'problem' is the dollar/pound exchange rate but by no means all of it. And I have to say, it shocked me to see these figures. I will be posting the details in a charts music forum soon for comment - then I will post the details here (adjusted after comments if necessary) but if it's anywhere near right, something is seriously wrong in the US CD market and I don't know why. But part of it is, I suspect, the media's insistence on playing and promoting a narrow range of genres - for young people - to the almost complete exclusion of other genres such as classical and classical crossover that are favoured by an increasingly aging population.

Cheers, Dave

[toronado]

It is also somewhat due to the fact that CDs are almost an extinct medium here. I can't say anything about the UK as I haven't been recently, but practically everyone here has an MP3 player. Even my parents have one. Everyone on campus has one. A majority of new cars here come with MP3 capability. I usually buy my CDs and rip them to MP3s as I don't really like the quality level of any of the download services, but I seem to be in the minority in that regard. In a year or two I think online sales will surpass CD sales substantially. Heck, I even discovered Hayley on ITMS myself.

[socalboy]

Right up front, I apologize for the length of these posts. I know this is not of interest to everyone. To slightly lessen the load, I have divided my post into two parts. This part is about the challenge of marketing Hayley in the U.S. Part II contains some proposals.

A lot of perceptive comments have reinvigorated this thread, which is a very good thing. This topic is difficult to get your hands around, and it seems to provoke some sharp differences of opinion. All very healthy I believe. Some of what I have to say has been covered by others.

Since discovering Hayley, the subject of her success in the States (or lack thereof) has preoccupied me, probably to the detriment of certain matters over which I actually have some control. Forgive me when I’m preaching to the choir or stating the obvious. I still count myself a Hayley novice, though I do know something about entertainment marketing.

Part I: The Challenge

This is about what I believe could bring mainstream success to Hayley in the States. It is not about what will necessarily make her happy or satisfy her artistic impulses, so from her perspective none of it may be worth doing. In one interview Hayley said that cracking the U.S. market would require spending a lot of time here (eating our fried vegetables, no less ), and she suggested that it could only happen slowly. I'm not sure I share that view. In fact, success here is often meteoric, catapulted by a single event or strategic timing. That’s where marketing can be critical. It’s the precipitous fall after initial fame that catches so many unprepared. But let’s deal with that if and when necessary.

If one looks at it superficially, it’s hard to understand why Hayley’s not already huge in the States. She’s got the two threshold requirements for a singer: A distinctive voice and great camera beauty. For better or worse, it’s a challenge to make it here without both. Several posters have suggested that Hayley’s personality may actually be an impediment. There is validity to this. The cynic in me says that her wholesome nature and her ability to stay out of the tabloids probably makes her a tougher sell. A sad irony indeed. But Hayley need not – nor could she - change on this count. It just means looking for other avenues.

I think Hayley’s biggest challenge is settling on the kind of music that she wants to sing and that at the same time a targeted group of Americans want to buy. I also think it’s a challenge that - perhaps unwittingly – she’s already surmounted.

And now I’m going to get in trouble. But let me say it nonetheless: For those who hope that Hayley can succeed in the U.S. following pretty much the same course she did in the UK, I am sorry to say it will never happen. The classical cross-over market in the U.S. is dominated by a lounge act (ll Divo) and an American (Josh Groban). Sarah Brightman’s success here is rooted in her connection to Andrew Lloyd Webber and musical theater. Charlotte Church was a 13-year-old novelty when she hit the States, and now she’s history. Yes, Hayley does find her way onto the so-called classical cross-over charts here, but American stores stock 20 copies of Il Divo albums to every one of hers.

In the U.S. there is no substantial classical audience waiting to discover Hayley. This country just doesn’t have the tradition and classical infrastructure of the UK. That’s why we don’t have classic FM TV. That's why classical music radio stations are disappearing (we just lost one in LA). And that’s why our stores don’t know where to put Hayley, Il Divo or even Josh Groban. Go to three stores and you’ll see them in three different sections. In a recent trip to Best Buy I found Celtic Treasure in the Easy Listening section, Il Divo in classical, and Josh Groban in pop. And as Dave has noted, these are currently the top three artists on the Billboard classical cross-over chart.

We have our classical devotees and concert goers, but they represent a tiny fraction of all record buyers, and in the States they tend to be particularly purist and exclusionary. Our big cities have symphony orchestras and concert seasons, and the same group of folks attends every year. This is not a growth market. These people are not yearning for an essentially untrained teenage ingénue from New Zealand to take their collective breath away. Again, anyone waiting for Charlotte Church lightening to strike twice will grow old waiting.

So, what to do? I think part of the answer is right under our noses. It has already been touched on in this thread. I call it the DARK WALTZ PHENOMENON, and I will discuss it in part II. There is a significant potential target audience for Hayley in the U.S., and when she gets the chance to sing to them, they will fall in love as we have. If adequately sampled, Hayley will triumph. To get there, she will need to shift her focus, and those who market her will have some re-positioning to do. I don’t think there’s any choice if conquering the U.S. market is important. There are reasons to believe the risks have already been mitigated, as I will again discuss in part II. And once Hayley has achieved success here, she will have more freedom to do what she wants. It will not work the other way around. If Hayley is served up as a Kiwi version of another singer, or as some ersatz diva, she will maintain her loyal U.S. following and little more.

One reason I’m hopeful for Hayley’s success in the U.S. is because of Steve Abbot. It’s clear he is smart, savvy and all one could hope for Hayley in a manager. He guides her masterfully while always aware that letting Hayley be Hayley is the key to everything. I’ve seen enough managers to know he is unique. He sets a high bar. One hopes Hayley’s label is up to it.

Part II hopefully by tomorrow.