Chart & Sales Comparisons/Predictions

[Dave]

So, how well will Odyssey do in the end?

Comparisons with what happened to other recent albums by major classical crossover singers may help us to predict the future success of Odyssey. We must of course allow for the changed situation now that Hayley is no longer a 'debut album artist still at school'.

As mentioned in the Latest Charts thread, Hayley is down from 10 to 21 in today's UK early midweek charts (4th Oct, based on Sunday & Monday's sales). This is not unexpected, though I'd hoped for a little better... and the number will probably change by a few places by the end of the week (up or down)

For comparison, here are the top 75 UK album chart positions of Hayley's "Pure", and Katherine Jenkins, Russell Watson and Andrea Bocelli from late last year. These cover the weeks between their release dates as stated, and Christmas (highest position in blue):

Hayley - Pure - 15 Sep 2003
8-8-10-8-9-11-11-13-7-18-10-11-10-12 (sales 578,000 for 2003)

Katherine - Second Nature - 30th Oct 2004
16-26-25-30-29-35-27-33-33-39 (sales 244,000 for 2004)

Russell - Amore Musica - 6th Nov 2004
11-18-35-35-42-57-62-67-72 (sales 140,000 for 2004)

Andrea - Andrea - 13th Nov 2004
19-40-55-68-out-65-71-65 (sales 97,000 for 2004)

As you can see, Pure was the odd one out... the way it held steady in 2003 for so many weeks was remarkable and quite unusual. This was I think due not only to the excellence of the album but also to the unique set of circumstances that Hayley fans are so familiar with.

I don't think we should expect too much from Odyssey. It needs to stabilise quickly, higher than position 30, to stand a chance of getting that platinum disc (300,000 shipped) that we all want for Hayley. At the moment, I can't see any way that Hayley can reach double platinum again in the UK but I hope to have to eat my words! As one or two of us said a few weeks ago, a UK single platinum this time round would be REAL success! Decca, we need you to open your 'promo' wallets... NOW!!!

If anyone would like any other chart or sales comparisons, feel free to ask for the data (not only for the UK). And, feel free to predict away! i.postimg.cc/9fYxy370/smilie-big-grin.gif

Cheers, Dave.

[Richard]

Hello Dave!

I'm not going to make any predictions, but whatever happens with "Odyssey" in the coming weeks, I think for any classical crossover artist to get two consecutive albums into the top ten is a remarkable achievement. Hayley has done it with her awesome talent and by winning the hearts of all her loyal fans. i.postimg.cc/9fYxy370/smilie-big-grin.gif

Many congratulations Hayley!

Best Wishes,

Richard

[Dave]

Well, now we know. In the UK, Odyssey has followed the normal pattern of charts decline - not the unusual one of "Pure".

This means Odyssey has shown the same steady decline in sales week by week as Russell Watson's last album and, for that matter, two albums released in the same week as Odyssey e.g. The Corrs (now below Odyssey) and to a lesser extent Jamie Cullum (now below 70). All these albums were or are (by the end of November) below the "critical mass" needed to benefit from the huge sales increase over Christmas. This surge occurs mainly in supermarkets and general stores - who tend to stock only the top 50 albums or at most, the top 100 or so (with a few exceptions). If you are well inside that top 50, you can double your total sales in December (as Hayley did with Pure); if you're well outside it (like the albums I mentioned) you won't. Albums in the 40 to 60 area will be somewhere in between.

So who will get the Christmas bonanza in the UK this year? Well as we are mostly interested in Classical Crossover artists, I've produced a list of all Crossover albums in the UK top 200 pop chart (including those which don't qualify for the classical chart). The list is from this Thursday's UK official midweeks - and it includes estimated sales this week based on what we know from Sunday to Wednesday (which I've doubled to make the weekly estimate). So it's a fairly good indicator of next week's charts apart from Eminem, who releases on Friday - in two days, he will probably take the no. 1 spot in the pop chart. Here it is:

Crossover pos. (Pop chart pos). - est. weekly sales - Artist - Title.

001 ( 001 ) 99K G4 - & FRIENDS
002 ( 006 ) 80K IL DIVO - ANCORA
003 ( 023 ) 40K KATHERINE JENKINS - LIVING A DREAM
004 ( 029 ) 30K CHOIRBOYS - THE CHOIRBOYS
005 ( 042 ) 17K BRYN TERFEL - SIMPLE GIFTS
006 ( 057 ) 14K ANDREA BOCELLI - ARIA - THE OPERA ALBUM
007 ( 095 ) 5K IL DIVO - IL DIVO
008 ( 105 ) 4K G4 - G4
009 ( 112 ) 3K ALED JONES - NEW HORIZONS
010 ( 124 ) 3K HAYLEY WESTENRA - ODYSSEY
011 ( 181 ) 2K KATHERINE JENKINS - SECOND NATURE

The "Supermarket" cutoff effect on sales is clearly seen below Andrea Bocelli. Odyssey is well below it and cannot now recover significantly - neither can Aled Jones. No sign of Amy Nuttall this week, by the way. But as we feared, Odyssey seems to have been released several weeks too soon unless Hayley was going to be on TV a lot - which she wasn't.

During December, the charts don't change much so we already know the winners and losers this Christmas. Success or relative failure seems to depend as much on having a successful strategy as on the actual merits of the albums concerned. Oh well.

Is there a sliver lining? Well yes... just look at how many classical/crossover albums will be in next week's top 200 pop album chart! Unbelieveable!

Dave

[Dave]

dave said:

The "Supermarket" cutoff effect on sales...

Des & Mel

Well, finally, at last, Hayley had a TV appearance and performance last week... in the UK of course, on the early afternoon chat show "Des and Mel". I thought it would be interesting to look at how this affected Hayley's sales after this was shown on Thursday last week. I now have midweek information for Sunday/Monday this week - it is quite interesting to compare sales with last week and it highlights dramatically our thoughts about the "supermarket effect" caused by the September (too early) release of UK Odyssey - and the subsequent lack of mainstream airplay and TV appearances.

For the first time since its release 11 weeks ago, the sales of Odyssey have increased this week. This has not yet resulted in an improved chart position but in a slowing down of the decline (from 128 to 135 in the pop chart - but it was as low as 149 just before Des and Mel). This week so far, sales are 17% higher than the same time last week. This compares with Aled Jones' new album - released 3 weeks after Odyssey and has been following closely the slide of Odyssey down the charts. Aled was a handful of places ahead of Odyssey in the pop chart and one place in the classical charts, the closest they've been for months. But Aled has shown a 4% sales decline this week so far and almost certainly, Odyssey will be above Aled this week in both charts.

But that 17% Odyssey sales increase only tells half the story. Odyssey sales in supermarkets and general stores (like Woolworths) have actually declined this week so far, compared with the same days last week. But why? It's The Supermarket Effect!!! My local 'Tesco Extra' had Odyssey at no. 117 in their chart last week but with only a handful of copies left in stock. Most other supermarkets and general stores had by then sold out and were not re-ordering. The day after Des and Mel, Tesco Extra were down to one copy and by now it may be impossible to buy Odyssey anywhere except specialist music stores such as HMV, MVC and online retailers who have classical departments. 70% of Odyssey sales are now in specialist shops - a complete reversal of what happened in the first few weeks.

So what's happened at the specialist shops who DO have Odyssey in stock? Well, this week sales are up by 50% on the same time last week. Proof if ever it was needed that if Hayley appears on TV occasionally and has an album in the shops to buy, she is still very popular indeed.

But WE knew that anyway, didn't we?

Dave

[Richard]

Of course we all know that Dave! :wink:

With Hayley having several more TV appearances coming up, including Songs of Praise next Sunday, I'm hoping sales of "Odyssey" will increase further over the Christmas period.

It was great seeing you again at St. John's on Monday, and Hayley was gorgeous as always! i.postimg.cc/9fYxy370/smilie-big-grin.gif

Best Wishes from somewhere up in the clouds,

Richard

[roger]

richnorri said:

...It was great seeing you again at St. John's on Monday, and Hayley was gorgeous as always! i.postimg.cc/9fYxy370/smilie-big-grin.gif

Best Wishes from somewhere up in the clouds,

Richard

Thank goodness you got that the right way round!

Roger

[Dave]

I notice from the latest UK Classical Artist chart that Katherine and Hayley have three entries each (every one else has only one) but Katherine's albums are charting much higher than Hayley's. And, in spite of Hayley's amazing chart performance there over the last two and a half years, Katherine is now well ahead in total weeks in the chart (170 compared to 141). She probably still hasn't caught Hayley in total UK across-the-counter sales (about 850,000+ vs 830,000+ at the end of 2005) but I expect this to happen in the UK in the next few weeks, unless something spectacular happens when Hayley releases the Odyssey Special Edition next month.

Katherine's current chart performance is amazing, with 3 out of the top 4 classical artist albums but we should remember, she has spent almost all her time in the UK since her first release nearly two years ago - so she has a much higher UK profile than Hayley. Never a month goes by without at least one major TV appearance by Katherine and she's always in the papers. Hayley does start getting the same level of media exposure after she's been in the UK for a few months (like last Christmas) but then, she goes overseas again and has to start all over again when she returns.

If you look at Worldwide chart and sales performances the situation is completely different, Katherine has hardly made any impression outside the UK and is a long way behind Hayley in Worldwide chart performance and sales.

I find it fascinating to watch these two completely different approaches to new singing careers (domestic vs. International) and it will be very interesting to see which policy, over the next few years, gives the best results (i.e. sells most albums). At first sight, their singing styles and career paths are similar but on closer examination, I think they are very, very different. Is anyone else as fascinated by this comparison as I am? I wonder which approach will produce the best overall charts and sales success in the next few years?

Dave.

[gareth]

Hi Dave,

I don't know if Hayley's more international approach will be more successful in the end (it undoubtedly results in more world wide sales), but from a marketing point of view, how would the financial investments of Decca and their returns on them compare? I would think that Decca would have spent far more on Hayley's marketing world wide than they did on Katherine. Could it possibly be that Katherine provides more return on their investments by just marketing her locally than by going international.

Pure sold close to 2 million world wide - Katherine (3 albums) sold more than 1 million just in the UK - and I doubt if the marketing efforts were proportional ...

I also think the Katherine strategy shows the advantage of striking the iron when it is hot - Premiere did well - and shortly afterwards, Second Nature (a better quality album) was released - and attracted new buyers for Premiere. Not too long afterwards, Living a Dream (quite superior to Second Nature) was released - and it is attracting new buyers for both Second Nature and Premiere.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised that, on the crest of the wave of Living A Dream, Premiere also will end up going platinum.

But when we compare Pure and Odyssey, I don't think the iron was struck when it was hot. Not only did we have to wait two years before Hayley's second album was released - but when it was released, it failed to take any advantage of the goodwill generated by Pure - simply because Odyssey isn't of the same class as Pure. The fact that Pure (SE) can move ahead of Odyssey, when the latter has just spent 18 weeks in the Classical Artists Chart is quite significant.

So, all in all, I think for an UK artist, the domestic market may well prove to result in a better return on investments - however, for a NZ-based artist, such an approach would not be feasible, simply because of the small domestic market.

Gerrit

[gra7890]

Moved (with Paddy's reply) to Hayley's Albums - Have I Missed Anything? by Dave and thread locked (there's another, bigger thread, on the same subject).